THE INDEPENDENT QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH FIRM

Al Banyan Tree offers comprehensive mathematical modeling of commodity markets. We combine advanced econometric techniques, dynamic simulation models, copula-based analytics, machine learning and our propietary AI engine to achieve clarity in volatile markets. We turn complex data into strategic information that improves forecasts, identifies hidden risks, and helps traders, investors, and manufacturers make informed decisions.

Metals & Mining

Metal markets are cyclical, with prices fluctuating due to economic shifts and technological demand. Our econometric forecasts, dynamic correlation analysis and AI-driven insights enable early trend identification, helping companies hedge against volatility, optimize production plans and make sustainable decisions.

Bring AI to the metal industry

Petrochemicals

The petrochemical industry runs on complex value chains and volatile feedstock costs. From dynamic pricing algorithms to scenario analysis for supply shocks, our insights enable petrochemical clients to stabilize margins and seize opportunities in an uncertain market.

Take it to your oil and refinery business

Agribusiness

Agribusiness is faced not only with extreme weather conditions, but also with fluctuations in supply and demand curves and uncertainty in global prices. We enable producers and traders to plan possible scenarios, ensure profitability, and maintain food security even during unpredictable seasons.

Improve your forecasts

At Al Banyan Tree we |

Key Commodities we cover and our key Services

Our expertise covers major commodity markets including agribusiness, coal, metals, and petrochemicals. We deliver deep insights and analytics to help you navigate the complexities and dynamics of these essential global markets.

Dynamic hedging strategies that safeguard your margins against market volatility, using advanced analytics to balance risk and reward

Ferrous metal

Petrochemical

Hedging strategy

Сoal

Grain

CF Forecasting

CFF that integrates market volatility scenarios, helping you predict liquidity needs and plan confidently for the future

Hedge accounting

Ensure your risk management activities align with IFRS: minimizing P&L volatility and administrative burden

FV estimation

Technology and analytics – modernizing your treasury operations for agility, efficiency, and better risk control

Treasury

Market research

Tailored market research that delivers actionable insights – exactly when and where you need clarity in the commodity landscape

Get precise FV valuations of forwards, options and structured products using cutting-edge quantitative models

Unified Exposure Oversight

Consolidated dashboard for physical inventory, futures, options, and derivatives
→ Eliminate portfolio blind spots
Proactive Risk Mitigation

Real-time breach alerts + stress-testing (extreme price volatility/supply chain disruptions)
→ Enable pre-emptive risk management
Algorithmic Hedging Optimization

Dynamic position calibration using volatility-sensitive models
→ Optimize protection cost-efficiency
Supply Chain Intelligence

Data-driven procurement strategies (spot/forward allocation) + logistics optimisation
→ Reduce operational costs 12-18%
Margin Preservation System

Continuous P&L simulation under stress scenarios
→ Guarantee earnings stability across market cycles

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Our latest researches and insights

Dive into sharp insights and the latest trends shaping global commodity markets. Using advanced analytics and innovative risk models, we deliver timely, data-driven content to help you anticipate changes and navigate market challenges with confidence.

Rebar Market Analysis:
China, Southeast Asia, and MENA

China Rebar Market:
Demand and Supply Overview

Rebar, a foundational construction steel product, faces a challenging environment marked by oversupply in China, variable demand in developing regions, and intensifying competition. This analysis explores market dynamics and price trends in China, Southeast Asia (SEA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), highlighting key sector developments.

China's rebar market faces weak construction demand and structural challenges, with supply marked by persistent overcapacity and strong producer competition.

Chinese rebar exports have increased amid weak domestic demand and low margins, though export growth is constrained by foreign quality requirements and limited profit potential.

Rebar prices in China have dropped to near break-even levels, resulting in razor-thin margins for producers and prompting many to consider output reductions to avoid persistent losses.

Steady construction growth is driving rebar demand in Southeast Asia, but stable prices and high costs keep producer margins tight despite stronger local supply.

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China Rebar Market:
Prices and Margins Overview

Southeast Asia:

Rebar Markets & Supply Chain

Southeast Asia:

Rebar Markets & Supply Chain

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China Rebar Market:
Export Trends Overview

AI Insight Engine

AI Insight Engine — Turning complex data into foresight, precision, and decisive action.

The AI Insight Engine empowers organizations to harness the full potential of their data by delivering real-time insights, anomaly detection, and predictive analytics. Integrated with Forecasting and Scenario Modeling, it allows businesses to simulate future outcomes, detect emerging risks, and make data-backed decisions with unparalleled accuracy.

Our M&A Advisory Projects
Strategic Investments and Acquisitions Across Key Industries

Our M&A advisory team guides high-impact investment projects that shape industries and forge strategic partnerships. From cement plants and gold mines to lithium ventures, we turn strategic opportunities into tangible results.

Cement Plant Acquisition – Uganda

We guided the acquisition of an ISO-certified cement plant near Kampala, with 600,000 MT/year capacity. This plant is positioned for rapid reactivation to serve the high-growth East African construction market.

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Multi-Asset Mining Portfolio – PNG & Australia

We facilitated the acquisition of a diverse mining portfolio with projects in Papua New Guinea and Australia, including gold, graphite, and polymetallic assets, all with active licenses and ready infrastructure.

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Gympie Goldfield – Australia

We assisted in the acquisition and restart of Australia's sixth-largest historical goldfield, with an average grade of 29 g/t gold, and a production target of 240,000 oz/year.

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Suku Passi/Bobs Resources Gold Mine – Suriname

A 33,466-hectare gold concession in Suriname with 4+ Moz of resources, adjacent to a major gold mine, offering rapid production scale-up with minimal initial capital.

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Xunsn Lithium Mine – Zimbabwe

We facilitated the acquisition of a high-grade lithium portfolio across 100+ km² in Zimbabwe, with 5.7 million tonnes of Li₂O and valuable co-metals, targeting the growing EV battery market.

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Kamkor Copper Deposit – Kazakhstan

We supported the acquisition of 100% ownership of the Kamkor copper mine in Kazakhstan, with 13.9 million tonnes of remaining reserves and plans to scale production to 750,000 tpa.

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African Gold Platform – Kenya & Zimbabwe

We advised on acquiring a 35–40% stake in a gold mining platform across Kenya and Zimbabwe, targeting 50,000 oz/year by 2030 and featuring industry-low production costs.

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Arabsiyo Gold Project – Somaliland

A small-scale operating gold mine in Somaliland, currently producing 15–20 g Au per day, with plans to scale to 1 kg/day and generate up to $4M annually through a two-phase expansion.

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Race Nickel Project – Indonesia

A nickel mining project in Sulawesi, Indonesia, with 287,000+ tonnes of contained nickel and plans for an 80,000 MT/year HPAL plant, aiming to supply the growing EV battery market.

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Nevera HGZ Gold Project – Papua New Guinea

A high-grade gold project in Papua New Guinea’s Eastern Highlands, with inferred resources of 17,100 oz Au at an average grade of 11.9 g/t, offering significant exploration potential in a renowned gold district.

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The advantage

Commodity Market Expertise

Deep expertise in Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian commodity markets, delivering tailored insights and strategic foresight.

Advanced Quantitative Analytics

Cutting-edge analytics powered by VECM, DCC-GARCH, VaR, Monte Carlo simulations, Copulas, and more for precision-driven risk and pricing strategies.

Experienced Global Team

17 seasoned professionals, including a former bank vice president, CFA/FRM holders, math PhDs and PRMIA finalists, offer unparalleled expertise in cross-border commodities.

Contact us

+852 55 900 760
info@albanyantree.com

Hong Kong HQ: Unit B6, 12th floor, Wing Wah Building, 677 King's Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong (SAR)

UAE, Dubai (DIFC): Opening soon
Singapore: Opening soon

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