Consumption of rebar in Southeast Asia is closely linked to construction activity, including residential and commercial projects, as well as major infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges and ports. Each country in the region has its own cycle. After a slowdown in the property market in 2022–23, Vietnam is now increasing public works spending, which is expected to boost demand for rebar. Meanwhile, Indonesia is investing in large-scale infrastructure projects, including the development of a new capital city, which is expected to boost rebar consumption in the coming years. The Philippines faces a persistent housing shortage, fuelling steady demand for construction steel. Across the region, high interest rates and inflation have recently slowed private construction. However, with inflation easing and governments increasing capital spending, a recovery in construction activity is anticipated for 2024–25. Growth in cement consumption in Indonesia and the Philippines further signals rising construction and rebar demand.
Production, imports and trade flows
Historically, many Southeast Asian countries have relied on importing rebar or billet, but the regional supply chain is evolving. Singapore imports all its rebar, primarily from Malaysia, Turkey, and China. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s production covers domestic needs and enables some exports, and Indonesia’s numerous small mills focus on local supply, supplementing it with imported billet. Meanwhile, Vietnam has transitioned from being a major importer to an exporter, with local producers such as Hoa Phat now shipping billet and rebar regionally.
Trade policies have reshaped market flows. For example, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia have imposed anti-dumping duties on rebar imports to protect local producers, thereby limiting the dominance of Chinese rebar in the region. Consequently, regional players and traditional exporters such as Turkey have become more prominent. Open markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore remain competitive, with Chinese rebar prices often setting the lower limit.
Pricing and margins
Rebar prices in Southeast Asia usually follow the CFR Singapore or Vietnam benchmarks, which are affected by the cost of global scrap and billet. In early 2025, regional prices stabilised at around $460–470/t CFR, down from the 2021 peaks. While these levels, which are now at or below pre-pandemic norms, benefit contractors, they compress margins for producers. Tight margins are under further pressure due to high scrap costs and minimal spreads between billet and rebar prices.
Supply Chain Integration
A significant trend in Southeast Asia is the integration of the supply chain, with increased local billet production supporting rebar rolling mills. Countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam have invested in new steelmaking capacity, reducing their reliance on imports and fostering intra-ASEAN trade. This regionalisation is expected to strengthen as more countries develop their own upstream capacity.
Outlook
Looking ahead, demand for rebar in Southeast Asia is projected to grow by 3–5% annually until 2026, driven by accelerating construction and infrastructure projects. Regional production is likely to meet much of this new demand. Prices are expected to remain in the range of $450–550/t over the next one to two years, unless further trade measures or shifts in Chinese export policy alter the balance. Upside risks include major infrastructure projects, while downside risks include a global recession or increased Chinese exports, which could push prices down.