China’s rebar market is under significant pressure due to a prolonged real estate downturn, which has sharply reduced demand. Infrastructure spending has provided only partial relief. Domestic rebar prices fell to multi-year lows in early 2025, with Shanghai rebar futures at approximately ¥3,130 per tonne (about $440) in May. Many Chinese producers are operating at or below breakeven, prompting output cuts such as blast furnace idling. To address excess inventory, Chinese exporters have increased shipments, with rebar offers to Asia dropping as low as $435–440 per tonne FOB by May 2025. Trade barriers in SEA and MENA limit absorption of this surplus, intensifying pressure on Chinese producers.

Southeast Asia anticipates rebar demand growth as construction recovers, but the market remains subdued. Strong competition from imports and lingering economic uncertainty keep local prices between $460–470 per tonne CFR Singapore. Buyers benefit from a competitive supplier landscape, as regional producers cut prices to secure orders. Oversupply from China establishes a regional price ceiling. While construction momentum is expected to strengthen in 2024–2026, ample supply will likely keep prices range-bound.

The MENA region presents a mixed outlook. Gulf states and Egypt benefit from robust construction pipelines and government initiatives, supporting demand. However, high inflation and currency instability—particularly in Egypt—complicate the market.
In some countries, prices exceed global levels due to tariffs, freight, and shortages. Recent demand has been tempered by seasonal factors and persistent financing challenges. Local producers are reducing prices and expanding capacity, while restricted import options continue due to trade protection measures. Turkey has resumed exports to MENA, and forthcoming major projects are anticipated to stimulate additional demand in the region.