The escalation of the Middle East conflict in March–April 2026 effectively constrained the UAE’s ability to export its crude grades loaded from ports inside the Persian Gulf – primarily Das and Upper Zakum – due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The only remaining route to bring Emirati barrels to international markets was through the Port of Fujairah, which lies outside the Gulf and is connected to Abu Dhabi’s onshore fields via the Habshan‑Fujairah pipeline (ADCOP). From Fujairah, the UAE loads its flagship Murban grade, which is not subject to the same geographical bottleneck. However, even this option faced a ceiling: under the OPEC+ production cut agreement, the UAE was voluntarily limiting its overall output, including Murban. In other words, what little non‑Murban crude it could still produce could not be exported (due to Hormuz), and it was not allowed to produce more Murban to compensate, because the OPEC+ quota covered all grades.

On 28 April 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced that it would exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the wider OPEC+ framework, effective 1 May 2026. The official UAE statement framed the decision as a reflection of the country’s long-term strategic and economic vision, its evolving energy profile and its accelerated investment in domestic energy production. It also stressed that the UAE would remain committed to a responsible and reliable role in global energy markets.

This matters because the UAE was not a marginal member of OPEC+. Reuters described the country as the fourth-largest producer within OPEC+ before the exit, while The National reported that the UAE accounts for roughly 4% of global oil production and had been producing materially below its stated capacity under the group’s quota framework. ADNOC states that its oil production capacity stands at 4.85 million barrels per day and that it aims to increase lower carbon-intensive hydrocarbon production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

The US Energy Information Administration noted in 2024 that ADNOC had brought forward its 5 million barrels per day capacity target from 2030 to 2027, supported by a major upstream investment programme. The same EIA analysis also highlighted that UAE production had averaged just below 3 million barrels per day over the previous decade, largely because of OPEC+ production cut agreements.

The timing is unusual because the decision comes during a severe disruption in Gulf energy flows. According to the IEA’s April 2026 Oil Market Report, global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March to 97 million barrels per day, as attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz caused what the agency described as the largest disruption in history. OPEC+ production fell by 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month to 42.4 million barrels per day.

Gulf producers have struggled to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG normally passes. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei said the exit would not have a major immediate market impact because of the constraints in the strait.

In the near term, we expect that effect on physical supply may be limited by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. In the medium term, however, the move gives the UAE greater freedom to convert spare capacity into market share. That is potentially bearish for crude prices once logistics normalise. The broader consequences of the UAE’s exit are expected to be discussed at OPEC’s next formal meeting, scheduled for 7 June 2026.