Market value of Marine gasoil
The dynamics of market value of marine gasoil reflect a larger trend: geopolitical risk is now a primary driver of commodity pricing. Sanctions, tariffs, and trade confrontations are crucial to market structure.
Here we provide a chart illustrating the dynamics of marine gasoil prices in Novorossiysk (Russia) and Istanbul (Turkey). Rather than a smooth convergence expected in a well-integrated market, the data shows a pronounced divergence of prices starting in early 2025 and reaching peaks above $150/MT by mid-2025. This pattern reflects a structural shift in market functioning, driven by series of external regulatory changes and logistical adjustments implemented by sanctions.
Here we provide a chart illustrating the dynamics of marine gasoil prices in Novorossiysk (Russia) and Istanbul (Turkey). Rather than a smooth convergence expected in a well-integrated market, the data shows a pronounced divergence of prices starting in early 2025 and reaching peaks above $150/MT by mid-2025. This pattern reflects a structural shift in market functioning, driven by series of external regulatory changes and logistical adjustments implemented by sanctions.
Sanctions and geographical spread
A notable shift occurred around October 1, 2024, when EU introduced new sanctions regime against Russian economics for “destabilizing activity”. The spread of prices started to widen. In October the average spread was 19 versus -4 in the previous month.
On December 16th, 2024, EU implemented 15th Package, which included restrictions on exports from Chinese companies, export limitations on 32 dual-use entities and sanctions against 52 vessels. This added pressure on supply chains, reduced the possibility of circumventing sanctions and contributed to growing asymmetry between the two regions price dynamics.
On January 10, 2025, USA introduced sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, “Gazprom neft” and “Surgutneftegas” were added in a sanction’s list. The spread surged, reaching $80/MT on January 15. On February 24, 2025, the EU introduced further bans: 153 vessels were included into sanctions' list, 13 Russian banks were disconnected from SWIFT, and full transaction bans were imposed on ports and airports serving Russian trade. These measures strangled logistics and financial intermediation with Russia.
On December 16th, 2024, EU implemented 15th Package, which included restrictions on exports from Chinese companies, export limitations on 32 dual-use entities and sanctions against 52 vessels. This added pressure on supply chains, reduced the possibility of circumventing sanctions and contributed to growing asymmetry between the two regions price dynamics.
On January 10, 2025, USA introduced sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, “Gazprom neft” and “Surgutneftegas” were added in a sanction’s list. The spread surged, reaching $80/MT on January 15. On February 24, 2025, the EU introduced further bans: 153 vessels were included into sanctions' list, 13 Russian banks were disconnected from SWIFT, and full transaction bans were imposed on ports and airports serving Russian trade. These measures strangled logistics and financial intermediation with Russia.
The greatest Shift and ADAPTATION
The most pronounced dislocation occurred in summer 2025, when EU introduced the 18th package of sanction. In addition to the existing price cap for the G7 countries — $60/barrel, EU implemented a price cap for Russian crude oil - $47.6/barrel. If this indicator is exceeded, European shipping, insurance and other companies can’t import crude oil from Russia. Was banned import of the petroleum products produced from Russian oil from third countries excepted import from Canada, the United States, The Great Britain, Norway and Switzerland. Additionally, were sanctioned 105 additional vessels and full Nord Stream 1&2 transaction. Istanbul prices rose, peaking $870/MT in July 2025.
On the 22 of October USA implemented sanctions against '"Rosneft" and "Lukoil". On the 23 of October 18th package was introduced by EU. It included ban on 150 vessels, sanctions on state-owned banks and foreign financial institutions, ban on access to crypto services for Russians. However, the graph shows that by November spread became narrower, prices in Russia increased, which reflects adaptation to the new conditions.
On the 22 of October USA implemented sanctions against '"Rosneft" and "Lukoil". On the 23 of October 18th package was introduced by EU. It included ban on 150 vessels, sanctions on state-owned banks and foreign financial institutions, ban on access to crypto services for Russians. However, the graph shows that by November spread became narrower, prices in Russia increased, which reflects adaptation to the new conditions.
Finding
A wide spread of prices shows a breakdown in market efficiency - a failure of arbitrage to equalize prices across regions.
For market participants, monitoring such structural indicators, especially spreads between geographical hubs, can provide early signals of changing conditions. At Al Banyan Tree experts in commodity trading provide all the forecasts and recommendations with deep industrial analysis to support informed decision-making.
For market participants, monitoring such structural indicators, especially spreads between geographical hubs, can provide early signals of changing conditions. At Al Banyan Tree experts in commodity trading provide all the forecasts and recommendations with deep industrial analysis to support informed decision-making.