SHIFTING FOCUS TO EXPORT MARKETS
SHIFTING FOCUS TO EXPORT MARKETS
With domestic margins under severe pressure, Chinese rebar producers have increasingly turned to export markets in search of better profits. This shift has been supported by a weaker yuan and, in some cases, tax rebates on certain alloyed rebar products. Historically, China was not a major exporter of rebar compared to flat steel products, particularly after 2016 when the removal of export tax rebates made rebar exports less attractive. However, Chinese mills resumed significant export volumes in 2023–24 as domestic demand weakened.
RECENT EXPORT PERFORMANCE
RECENT EXPORT PERFORMANCE
In 2024, Chinese rebar exports were estimated at around 5–6 million tonnes, including alloyed bars that could circumvent export taxes. By 2025, export activity had accelerated further. For instance, in early May 2025, Argus reported a Chinese mill selling a rebar cargo to Hong Kong at $460 per tonne CFR, equivalent to around $435 per tonne FOB China. This price was similar to the Argus FOB China rebar index of $440 per tonne at that time. Such deals highlight China's capacity to supply rebar at prices below $450 FOB, thereby undercutting most regional competitors.
CONSTRAINTS AND POLICY ENVIRONMENT
CONSTRAINTS AND POLICY ENVIRONMENT
Despite its export competitiveness, Chinese rebar faces several limitations in global markets. Many countries have quality standards, such as earthquake-resistant codes, that Chinese material must meet, while others impose import quotas or duties. Furthermore, the Chinese government removed VAT rebates on rebar exports in mid-2021 and imposed a 15% export tax on deformed bars in 2022. While some mills have managed to circumvent these taxes by classifying exports as alloy steel, exporting rebar remains only marginally profitable overall. For most producers, exports serve as a safety valve for excess supply rather than being a major source of profit.
OUTLOOK
The outlook for Chinese rebar exports will continue to depend on domestic market conditions, global demand and the evolving landscape of trade policies and quality requirements. While exports provide some support for mill utilisation rates, structural limitations and policy barriers are likely to keep export volumes in check, even though Chinese mills remain highly competitive in terms of price.
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