Global Steel Market Outlook
< Home
Executive Summary
Global steel markets are entering a period of modest recovery in demand but with significant challenges from oversupply and thin margins. Global steel demand, after contracting in 2022–2023, is projected to bottom out in 2024 and then rebound by ~1.2% in 2025 to around 1.77 billion tonnes. This upturn will be driven primarily by emerging economies (notably India and some MENA/ASEAN countries) while China’s domestic demand remains sluggish . However, global steelmaking capacity is expanding much faster than demand, raising the risk of renewed oversupply. An estimated 68 million tonnes of new capacity is on track to come online during 2024–2026, with another ~89 Mt in planning.
Preliminaries is the first section of a book and is usually the smallest section in terms of pages.
Steel prices and margins have been constrained by high input costs and tepid demand. While key raw material prices such as iron ore and coking coal have come off their 2021–2022 peaks (iron ore hovering near ~$100/dmt, coking coal ~$170–190/t in early 2025) , finished steel prices have also softened, limiting margin improvement. In China, domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices hit multi-month lows in early 2025 amid weak construction demand . Blast furnace mills in China were barely breaking even by Q2 2025 – many saw profit margins drop to zero or negative as rebar and HRC prices neared cost-floor levels. Electric-arc furnace (EAF) producers globally have likewise faced
margin compression; for example, Turkey’s rebar-makers saw spread (rebar minus scrap) shrink to
around $155–160/t in May 2025 , reflecting weaker finished prices in line with falling scrap costs.
margin compression; for example, Turkey’s rebar-makers saw spread (rebar minus scrap) shrink to
around $155–160/t in May 2025 , reflecting weaker finished prices in line with falling scrap costs.
The advantage
Our people
Our dedicated team of industry professionals are close to local markets, so you benefit not only from precise pricing data but the breadth of market intelligence at their fingertips. Data alone – no matter how accurate – is not sufficient.
Methodologies
The unique market insights we deliver are founded on a deep understanding of market mechanisms. Our methodologies for price discovery are transparent and firmly based on rigorous processes and specifications developed in consultation with market participants.
Heritage
For over 50 years, clients have benefited from the precise market intelligence delivered by experts working collaboratively across the global commodity markets.
Learn more
Browse ALL OUR SOLUTIONS
We are committed to providing full transparency into the methods we employ so detailed specification guides are available for every price reporting product we offer.
It's very easy to be different, but very difficult to be better