Copper – cash squeeze deepens
- Cash–three-month spread: The premium on prompt LME copper briefly reached US $379/t on Monday before easing to ~US $150/t—a stark turnaround from the minor contango (~US $-100/t) seen in January.
- Inventory draw: Exchange stocks have fallen ≈176 kt YTD, leaving just 95 kt available. Combined with a constrained concentrate market, this is keeping nearby metal scarce.
- Implication: We expect elevated nearby premiums to persist until smelter feed tightness eases or visible stocks rebuild.
Precious metals – safe-haven bid cools
- Gold: Spot prices slipped 1 % to US $3,324/oz after Israel and Iran reaffirmed a cease-fire, tempering geopolitical risk demand.
- Silver: Followed gold lower as broader risk appetite improved.
- Macro overlay: With US core inflation still above target and tariff effects yet to feed through, Chair Powell is unlikely to rush additional rate cuts—another near-term headwind for bullion.
